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Conflict in the Middle East and the impact on interest rates
MortgageMarch 13, 2026

Conflict in the Middle East and the impact on interest rates

The current geopolitical context and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East can have direct consequences for families with a mortgage. Understand the impact on interest rates and strategies to protect your budget.
By Rui Silva · Gestor de Crédito Habitação6 min

This scenario can have direct consequences for families with a mortgage. After the peak recorded in 2023, the European Central Bank's (ECB) key interest rates began to gradually decrease, and the market anticipated that this trend would continue through 2026, making variable rate solutions more attractive for many clients.

However, the current geopolitical context and rising energy prices increase the risk of new inflationary pressures and may lead central banks to adopt a more cautious stance. If inflation accelerates again, the possibility of new interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out, which could result in an increase in mortgage monthly payments.

Strategies to protect your budget

In an uncertain context, one of the most effective strategies is to analyze and renegotiate the main fixed expenses of the family budget.

Mortgage

The house payment is, for many families, their main expense. Therefore, it is important to periodically review the contract and see if there are opportunities to improve the conditions:

  • Renegotiate credit conditions
  • Compare different types of rates: fixed, variable, or mixed
  • Check if it's possible to improve the spread, term, or associated products

Personal Credit and Credit Cards

Many credits at the same time? It can be difficult to fit all the monthly payments into the family budget. In that case, it might make sense to consider consolidating the various credits into a single financing and thus reduce the total amount of monthly payments.

Insurance

Are you one of those who have had insurance with the same insurer for years and never looked at other solutions available in the market? Maybe it's time to make a comparison. CrediSegur can help you in this process, simply and safely: compare the coverage and price of what you have today with the proposals from the insurers we work with.

As a tied credit intermediary, we analyze each case and the financial situation of each client, always taking into account the economic and geopolitical context of the moment. In this way, we present you with solutions also designed for the future.

If you have any questions about this particular subject, send us a message, we have already helped 4,328 families, we are happy to help you!

See you soon,
Rui Silva

Article by CrediSegur (CRRF – Brokerage, Lda.), a tied credit intermediary registered with Banco de Portugal under no. 0001290. We present proposals from the banks with whom we have a binding contract, identified in the Consumer Information, and we do not provide consulting services. Insurance agent registered with ASF under no. 421571530.

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